"I’m never worried about crypto long term"
by Jared Madere
I'm never worried about crypto long term
I could be wrong but probably not, at least not about the broad strokes
I'm extremely bullish on big 3, memes, NFTs- their ability to recover + vastly surpass
We're hearing a lot about a changing landscape where the value of 'legitimate' infra is being decimated by crumbling narratives and statements like those from Vitalik saying L2s don't make sense anymore + mass adoption narratives that have yet to bear fruit
For some the even the temporary destabilization of those narratives is extremely unsettling
If your conception of what is valuable in this space (either as an investor or a user) is tied up in tangential infra (ie projects where people who genuinely understand user psychology and cultural dynamics can see that the underlying technology, however brilliant, won't drive actual adoption) - this is like being told Santa Claus doesn't exist and G-d is dead
Making this the crux of everything is a bit like believing cars will no longer exist because roads made of glass, jellybeans, or seashells have been proven useless- infra and narratives are being consolidated into asphalt roads and go-karts ~ main-lane serious infra, and play ~~~ BTC, ETH, SOL, *memes*
All of these play key roles in the core usage of blockchains that have been proven and time tested by how people ACTUALLY interact with the tech
When people say 'this space will die if it does not evolve beyond pure speculation' - it already has evolved, the rest of the world just hasn't fully caught on yet- inevitable
BTC- the og, eventual 'store' of value- digital gold (highly debatable but still a catchy enough brand with enough amnesia it might still stick) etc etc, most likely to be adopted by governments, all money goes digital etc - even if the narrative collapses or flipening occurs- ETH will likely inherit the throne
ETH- trust, not just 'programmable money', but trust + security - the infra that has already been integrated into systems like the Visa payment layer and will increasingly become the backbone of systems that require high-trust
- soon it will likely be the chain with the best agent integration
SOL- the retard's chain, it's more fun here
If eth continues cranking gas down there is a potential scenario where sol becomes irrelevant- BUT the moat of smooth ux + the fact that the chain is more focused on culture than security/trust sets SOL up to be the culture chain for at least the near future if not indefinitely
memes- obviously for those who have not been plugging their ears to reality, actual blockchain usage metrics have proven that humans are forever in love with the rush of a 100x - whether you want to diminish it by calling it 'degenerate gambling' - or take it as sort of spiritual divination process where the successful trader is tapping into the flow of the collective consciousness mixed with chart analysis and riding the waves of attention economies - memes / betting on attention economies have proven to be a fantastic fit for blockchain tech and the behavior and culture of their users
A couple summers ago pump out performed the entire ethereum chain in terms of transaction volume multiple times- as broader adoption occurs and the broader sentiment shifts in various ways, a humanity that is driven by culture will embrace the playful aspect of trading memes more and more, even if it's somehow packaged differently than the token-centric language we use to describe them today
Humans love to speculate- and it's more fun to speculate on whether your friend can catch a shot in their mouth thrown across the room or whether a celebrity will tear their dress than it is to bet on whether more people will drive on country roads or highways
I see a lot of people that have been in crypto for ages get extremely depressed by this and in part they have every right to. For many a huge part of their initial involvement in this space had to do with building a new world free from so much that is ugly and corrupt. To see idealism tempered with ETFs and quasi centralized corporate chains is not the most inspiring way that could have gone. Is it over? No....everything can always change.... nothings over~ but even if we did have to come down from the idea that blockchains were going to save us from everything that is tainted in this world- there is tremendous beauty in all of this. There is tremendous beauty in navigating an imperfect structure and contemplating all the forces that shaped it.
People talk about gambling and speculation like it's this horrifying thing that can only be condemned or seen as the most base bland predictable outcome but this might also be like condemning sex and food which are different from lust or gluttony. Play is play and there is play that causes anguish and gives concussions while the same play gives ecstatic joy
this is my favorite art about markets or money or trying to do a lot of things in the world
https://x.com/worldisrug/status/1809171683980325077?s=20
The other point of anxiety felt by many reflecting on recent months:
mass adoption- again, if you understand user behavior and culture it should have been obvious that this cycle is not the one that is going to deliver that inevitable promise
2021 was a hysterical moment- it popped because everyone got a covid check + had a bunch of time when they were stuck at home- SIMPLE, it's not that complicated
Again- if you understand people and their behaviors it's so so so so simple
We didn't get covid checks this cycle- so why would they come now? What reason have we given them to come? Memes yes, but the way they are portrayed today as scams that are likely to rug makes them a little too terrifying to too many- the concept + herd behavior will optimize to smooth that out in practice and in public perception
Here's some catalysts that actually stand to result in significant adoption:
Digitalization of all currency
AI unemployment / 'gambling' with UBI checks
GTA6
Government adoption
Consolidation of meme/prediction activity into something less volatile
Shifting sentiment in how the risk/scam potential is portrayed in the larger culture
None of that has happened yet- but almost all of it is inevitable -I'm always shocked by how short sighted people can be with their confidence
And finally- why NFTs are aktualie one of the best use cases for blockchains, and will become an increasingly strong industry and timeless narrative automatically:
On a not so distant timeline- everything from daily transactions to security and trust protocols move onchain
Humans love culture, they love participating in narratives, they love owning rare objects that keep them up at night thinking and change the way they perceive the world
The financial backbone of the trad art world has been shrinking for years and younger generations are not swooping in to fill the shoes of their would-be parents
An enormous wealth transfer and shift in how wealth is created is continually occurring
Humanity's propensity for value generation through connective cultural tissue, and objects born out of it remain ever swelling- especially in times of increased reflection and leisure. AI has licked the envelope that inevitably results in humans being destined to spend more and more time this way
The world's infrastructure is moving onchain, the values of those building wealth today are looking less and less toward the previous regime of cultural institutions, more and more looking to new cultural arenas
Where are those new cultural arenas unfolding?